A discourteous decision over the election date shows deep indifference to Scotland

The Labour Party's position is that long periods of Conservative rule are a price worth paying to remain in the UK

So the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, a man so lacking in strategic planning ability that he cannae pick up a brolly when going outside to make a speech in the rain, has announced a General Election at the start of the Scottish school holidays. 

We can only imagine the kitchen table conversations among candidates, MPs, MSPs, party activists and people involved in the process such as Returning Officers. Many families go away right when the schools break up - the “skailing” in Scots. Because it is not yet high season, prices are a bit lower. At the start of July, in the campsites of northern France, for example, it’s mainly just the Scots and the Scandis. So, many families are likely to have had their holidays booked and will now have to cancel - and probably swallow the cost. 

Even for people on an above-average salary, bringing up a family creates financial pressure. The family holiday is a big expense that is saved for and looked forward to for months. There will be a lot of disappointed partners and children. Maybe rather than cancel, some families will choose to go anyway, without their election-involved person. But it won’t be the same.

And families in general are usually mad-busy in the last weeks of Scotland’s short summer term, with the bustle of shows, sports days and packing. How many will get around to applying for a postal vote? It is a racing certainty that turnout will be low. 

The Conservatives have little at stake in Scotland in terms of seats

From a party political viewpoint, it makes sense that the Tories don’t care very much about Scotland. The party won just seven seats out of 59 at the last election and they are likely to lose at least two (out of 57)  this time. One of their MPs is Lisa Cameron, who was elected as the SNP candidate for East Kilbride before defecting to the Conservatives. The Party’s Scottish leader Douglas Ross is standing down from his Moray seat as MP (he will continue to be an MSP) and that constituency is also affected by boundary changes.  

In the other five seats, the runner-up last time was the SNP. The Labour vote was a long way behind. The result on the day will depend on which party’s supporters show up. Older voters may be less likely to be on holiday perhaps. But a couple of seats either way won’t make much difference to the outcome for the Conservative Party. 

But this decision underlies the parting of ways between Scotland and the UK’s major ruling party

It seems odd to reflect now that the Conservatives once had strong support in Scotland. The first time that Scotland voted a different way from the UK was 1970. Before that, the countries were much more in step politically.  Since then, the Scottish people have never elected a Conservative government. And yet, for more than half the time, they have been ruled by one. 

In 1970, the UK elected Edward Heath, though Scotland voted Labour. Between 1974 and 1979 there was a Labour government - and the SNP was blamed for bringing it down, voting against it in a no-confidence vote after Labour failed to deliver a Scottish Assembly. 

For the next 18 years, Scotland voted solidly Labour at every election - only to get a Conservative government, which presided over a rapid - and ruthless - deindustrialisation of the country, the archetypal unjust transition.  

Scotland got what it voted for again in 1997 - a Labour government under Tony Blair, which finally granted Scotland a devolved Parliament with limited, but still considerable, powers. In 2010, Scots showed up at the polls to elect Gordon Brown as PM - but got David Cameron instead, the start of the current 14-year Conservative administration. 

Scotland finally turned away from Labour 

After fighting hard to win the independence referendum for the Union in 2014, the Labour Party was wrong-footed. Instead of thanking Gordon Brown and Labour for their efforts, Cameron strolled out to the familiar podium outside Downing Street the day after the vote and announced he would immediately bring in  “EVEL” - English Votes for English Laws.

“EVEL” effectively made it pointless to vote for a Scottish Labour MP - they would have been forbidden from helping Labour to vote its domestic agenda through Westminster. (EVEL has now been repealed, but there remains a question as to how it will go down in England if Scottish Labour MPs are relied upon to push through policies that won’t affect their constituents). 

In that 2015 election, Scotland finally turned away from Labour and voted overwhelmingly for the SNP, as they also did in 2017 and 2019. 

During that time, a combination of the Unionist parties at Westminster forced Brexit on Scotland, refusing to make any compromise despite the clearly expressed wish of the Scottish electorate to remain in the European Union. That decision is visibly shrinking the UK economy and is causing serious material damage to Scotland. 

Will Scotland return to the Unionist fold?

Now, Scots are being asked to vote Labour again, to help to “get the Tories out” - not to vote out Scottish Conservative MPs directly, because there so very few, but to elect Labour MPs instead of SNP ones. Scottish Labour MPs will then swell the numbers on the red benches and help Labour to get its policies through. 

The polls suggest many Scots, even those who support independence,  will do that this time, liking the message of change. It looks as if Scotland may return to the Unionist fold - at least temporarily. 

A discourteous decision that underlines the Unionist position

Calling a general election in the first week of the Scottish school summer holidays is a discourteous decision that reveals a lack of consideration for Scotland’s interests. It will not surprise, though it might annoy, independence supporters.  They can only gain politically from the “Scotland” Who cares?” attitude that is revealed. 

No doubt Unionists will argue that the election date is not important. They will say it is a small matter - but it reveals a deep indifference to Scotland which cannot be a good sign for their cause.

The Labour Party is asking Scots to vote to ‘get the Conservatives out’. But that can only be temporary while Scotland remains in the Union. Their position is, essentially, that long periods of Conservative rule are a price worth paying to remain part of the UK. Scots may eventually reject that offer.