Could Nikki Haley be America’s Margaret Thatcher?
For Europeans, the conflict in Ukraine is of central importance in the US election race
There is a chance that it will be Nikki Haley not Donald Trump who will be the Republican challenger to Joe Biden next year. The bookies now rank her at 11/2 to get the nomination and third in the race to be the next President of the US.
The Republican TV debates that Trump didn’t show up to gave her a platform. The wooden pre-planned barbs that other candidates thrust at her - “Cheney in three-inch heels” - were snapped back - “they’re five inches and I don’t wear them unless I can run in them.” She showed she can think on her feet, make herself heard and has a bit of spirit.
In terms of serious policy as well as debating skill, Haley was miles ahead of the pack. For Europeans, the war in Ukraine is of central importance. The balance there seems to be tipping towards Russia, Gideon Rachman of the FT said in this podcast. Having one of the two contenders for the presidency threatening - as Trump does - to withdraw US backing for Ukraine would surely push the scales further towards Putin. In contrast, Haley has said that this is not just a territorial conflict and that it is in the US national interest to support Ukraine.
The plight of the Ukrainians is desperately sad - and so is that of the Russian people, caught in the grip of a murderous autocracy. Decorated Russian general Vladimir Sviridov, an“Honored Military Pilot of Russia”, was the latest Putin critic to be found dead in mysterious circumstances, along with his wife, last month.
Many on both sides long for an end to this bloody imperialist conflict. But allowing Putin’s war machine to roll across the steppe is not going to create peace. Quite the reverse. It would be much better for Ukraine and for those who oppose Putin inside Russia if Haley wins the nomination - and if she wins that, she will probably be the next POTUS.
Haley is still way behind in national polling of the Republican voters, who will choose the party’s nominee for President. But soon other candidates will drop out and this will become a two-horse race. At that point, support for Haley, who is attracting big donors who can fund advertising, may surge. Already, she is not as behind in the key battleground states as she is nationally. CNN assessed Haley’s possible path to the nomination recently and concluded that while it is a long shot, it is not out of the question.
Many Democrats, ironically, hope Trump will get the nomination. That is what their strategy is based on. Biden has shown he can beat Trump. They are both old, so the criticism of Biden’s age has less sting from the Donald. In a Biden-Trump contest, turnout will probably be low and it seems that low turnout tends to favour the Democrats.
If Haley were to win the nomination, she could take a leaf or two out of Margaret Thatcher’s book. In an essay entitled “The Conservatives Advertising Campaign”, campaign strategist Tim Bell recalled that the 1979 campaign that gave Thatcher her landslide (in England) consciously built on the excitement and enthusiasm people felt about having a woman at the helm.
“We felt that politics had become unbelievably tedious and boring. Here after all was an election which could result in Britain's first woman Prime Minister. That was rather an exciting thought for the general public and we thought it would not hurt to make the whole approach exciting.”
That campaign deliberately targeted working-class women, who had been hit hard by inflation, as well as other segments like first-time voters and trade unionists, with a values-led one-nation approach.
Bell wrote: “The one-nation' concept is much more powerful than appealing to any particular position on an ideological spectrum.” He felt that the moment Thatcher really won was when she delivered a ten-minute speech as a party political broadcast during the period of mass strikes and disruption known as the Winter of Discontent. She said: “We have to learn again to be one nation or one day we shall be no nation.”
Haley could make a similar pitch which could go down well in the wider election campaign, if not in the Republican-only primary.
Keir Starmer referred positively to Thatcher recently and was criticised by the SNP. But it is a measure of just how far politics has drifted to reflect on how far to the left of the current Conservative Party Margaret Thatcher was. She thought Britain should be a member of the EU, influential and assertive on policy certainly, but definitely there at the top table. As a scientist, Thather was also ahead of the curve in understanding the implications of climate change. In 1989, Thatcher told the UN Assembly: “It is mankind and his activities which are changing the environment of our planet in damaging and dangerous ways.”
There are many aspects of Nikki Haley’s policies that liberals and Democrats won’t agree with, but the idea of having Donald Trump on the Republican ticket again is a grave threat to European interests. Having a Republican president who 1) will support the Ukrainians in their brave and difficult fight against Putin and 2) accepts the reality of climate change would be way better. That’s all I’m saying.
We Never Ad It So Good - the 1979 election campaign - letter from Scotland
And yet may still be too great a risk
But at what cost to a future United States