Five soothing predictions for 2023
This is the time of year when commentators make - usually very gloomy - predictions for the year ahead. It is a chancy business. Nobody, no matter how well-informed, can predict the future. Given the likelihood of failure, why not make hopeful ones? Here are some I would like to see:
#1 The war in Ukraine will end
Amongst deputy head of Vladimir Putin's security council, Dmitry Medvedev, predictions for 2023 is apparently that NATO will try to assassinate Putin. Get in line! There must be many people who want to see the back of Vladimir - so they can stow a knife in it. What about the friends and relations of the 24 Russian billionaires who died mysteriously in 2022, some of them along with family members? How about the mothers of Russian conscripts who have perished painfully in the pointless slaughter? The Council of Soldiers’ Wives and Mothers is a new incarnation of the Committee of Soldiers’ Wives and Mothers who traversed the mountains of the Caucasus to find their sons and husbands, dead or alive, during the Chechen Wars of the 1990s and 2000s. I think 2023 is the year that the Council of SWM gets to Putin through whoever pushes the Kremlin’s samovar trolley. They will put something in his tea that renders him permanently harmless. Then a war-ending form of words will be found that can be hailed (in a fake news way) as a victory for Russia.
#2 Inflation will come down
Inflation in the USA has already peaked - the increase in the consumer price index in the USA fell from a peak of 9 percent in June to 7 percent in November. Democrats hope that the massive infrastructure bill Biden managed to pass will provide income streams that can protect jobs - including the largest investment in rail transport for 50 years (this is much-needed - US trains look like something out of a transport museum). They are also going to channel billions into the transition to electric cars and renewable energy. The US may - just - manage to avoid recession. Inflation in Europe and the UK also fell slightly last month. The UK has particularly bad food inflation at 16%, partly due to Brexit. But most analysts expect inflation to continue to fall, which will be a relief to us all.
#3 There has been a lot of talk about net zero - in 2023 we will start to see more businesses and governments put their plans into action.
There is a lot to worry about when it comes to the climate. 2022 was the hottest year in England since 1659 when records began. We know that catastrophic weather events are becoming more common. But there are signs that the message is getting through. The US is showing the way by putting more money into climate-friendly policies than ever before. The EU is introducing the world’s first carbon border tax, to protect businesses that have to work to high climate standards from low-regulation competitors outside the bloc (like the UK is becoming). The energy crisis has focused minds and there has been a massive push into renewables - eg total solar power in the EU increased by 25% in just one year. It has been good to see Brazil and Australia elect pro-climate governments. In 2023 we will start to see more businesses and governments across the world put their net zero plans into action.
#4 The Scottish Labour Party will change its mind about Brexit - and a Scottish referendum
The end of freedom of movement has affected many sectors in Scotland. Scotland has one of the oldest populations in the world, chronic ill health and a low birth rate. We have lost many nurses, doctors and care workers. We have a lot of seasonal jobs in agriculture and hospitality that are now unfilled. We are producing less food. We have suffered a loss in opportunity both for our young people - and for the old, who might have chosen to retire to southern Europe.
The Labour Party maintains support for Brexit because England wants that; yet refuses to support a referendum on independence for Scotland - even if the majority of Scots want that. Six of the last seven polls have shown majority support for independence. Among 16 to 35s that is 70%. What future is there for Scottish Labour in that? It risks becoming like the DUP, stuck in the past, in denial about demographic change, craving the attention of an indifferent England. Gordon Brown’s report on abolishing the House of “Lords” was a case in point - I don’t think any English commentator on this appeared to know or cared how noxious the “Lords” is in Scotland now.
The Labour Party is like a rodeo rider trying to keep a foot on two horses that are running in different directions. Labour’s only hope of a real revival in Scotland is to untether the horses. In 2023, Scottish Labour will start to realise it has to break from London if it wants to thrive.
#5 The NHS will survive
It is dreadful to read about the state of the NHS. It managed to get through the horrors of the pandemic but now seems to be in a state of collapse. The chair of the BMA in Scotland Iain Kennedy says it is broken and can’t go on in its current form. We do need a national conversation about how to proceed. One issue is a shortage of doctors. In the US, one doctor in three is aged over 60. But in Scotland, most seem to retire in their 50s - that is way too young - the standard retirement age is 67.
There is a pension problem that incentivises doctors to retire early - can we fix that? Maybe we also need to rethink how doctors are trained and who we train. There is a lot of evidence now that AI is consistently better at diagnosis than even experienced doctors. Now we have Dr Google, medics don’t need to memorise huge quantities of data the way they used to. Should we train a different type of person - maybe mature students with a caring background? Should we make the qualifications needed to be a GP far easier to obtain? Can we ask medics to work in Scotland for at least three years after qualifying?
One good thing that has come out of the pandemic is that pharmacists are being used more effectively. In the Spectator recently, writer Lucy Dunn described how she found herself in A and E for hours waiting for a prescription for impetigo as her pharmacist could not prescribe it. She acknowledged that would not have happened in Scotland.
Necessity is the mother of invention - the NHS will survive and hopefully improve when this tough winter is over.
Happy Hogmanay, and lang may yer lums reek - but in a carbon-neutral way