Like Ireland, an independent Scotland will have to rethink its supply chain - with an emphasis on reducing emissions
More freight travels to and from Ireland by sea - can Scotland develop more ferry links?
Freight routes between Ireland and Europe have been substantially redrawn since Brexit. Much more of it now goes directly by ferry to and from France, instead of across the ‘landbridge’ of the UK. That has increased the cost and time involved - but also reduced carbon emissions as waterborne transit emits much less - and has the potential to become even more environmentally friendly.
An independent Scotland in Europe will also need to consider how to manage imports and exports, especially if the rest of the UK remains in its own Brexit bubble.
The current impact of the Brexit restrictions on Scotland’s exports is substantial, particularly on food and drink. Fish exports from Scotland to the EU are heavily down; whisky exports are down by 5 million a week.
Scotland is a net exporter and this disruption will damage its economy. It will also affect numbers in the dreaded “GERS” figures which the UK Government produces - Scotland will look like even more of a dead hand on the British economy than it usually does - thanks to Brexit.
Brexit is also causing delays and difficulties with imports - supermarkets are displaying less variety particularly of salad greens and other delicate fresh produce. This situation is likely to get worse when Britain finally brings in its long-delayed import restrictions. The longer it delays this the greater the import/ export imbalance is likely to grow. England is a net importer of goods - and will be more so this year.
The opportunity for an independent Scotland would be to create strong and reliable links with the EU and to reduce the distance freight travels in diesel-belching, particle-emission spraying HGVs.
Having more ferry links in place would enable Scotland to increase its exports to the EU - a Scottish Government target - even while it remains in the UK. The Scottish government for instance could take steps to ensure that it has adequate vets available at Scottish ferry ports and do what it can to mitigate onerous red tape. Shorter supply chains and more rail freight would reduce the need for HGV drivers.
The negative would be cost - this would take investment and the business case would rest on whether there is the amount of trade that would be required to attract ferry companies.
Produce from Ireland and also potentially some EU goods could more easily transit to Scotland via the Irish mainland. If Northern Ireland also leaves the UK, the route from Belfast to Cairnryan could operate without restrictions. At the beginning of the year, it looked as if a lot of freight might be rerouted that way anyway - with more traveling from Larne and less from Dublin - but various issues over the border restrictions at Larne may damage enthusiasm for this route. A new border post is planned for Cairnryan.
If Northern Ireland remains in the UK, perhaps a ferry route could be established from Dundalk which could bring produce in without restriction to an independent Scotland in the EU.
On the east of Scotland, a container port will be needed. A friend suggests Methil in Fife. it is easy to access from sea, at the mouth of the Forth estuary and well placed to supply the central belt. The Levenmouth rail link, which is planned to restore a rail link cut by the UK government last century, will add to its potential. The area is depressed and could benefit from investment.
The Irish Times reports that the increased capacity on all its direct routes is now moving a third of ro/ro traffic - up from 17% - but that capacity nowhere near enough to move all of the freight that used to travel across the land bridge. Unaccompanied fright travel (lo/lo) is also up - “The CLdN, operator of the mammoth “Brexit Buster” ships, is now making 10 calls a week into Dublin Port.”
Dublin Port Company chief executive Eamonn O’Reilly described the growth in direct lo-lo container and dropped trailer freight traffic with continental Europe as extraordinary: “If you look out our fourth-floor window, you will see yards full of trailers that have come in or are going out to continental Europe. It is only when you see the physical volumes that you get a good picture of the fundamental change that has happened,” he says.
The Irish Times article continued: “Stena Line, the biggest ferry operator on the Irish Sea, says that freight trade is 223 percent ahead on its Rosslare-Cherbourg service but 37 percent lower on its Dublin-Holyhead route. But rumours of the death of the land bridge as a route to Europe for Irish businesses appear to be exaggerated. Irish Sea freight volumes are still much higher than the direct routes: some 180,000 lorries used direct ferries in the first half of this year; 354,000 used Irish Sea sailings.”
This of course provides an encouraging example for an independent Scotland that it will be able to continue trading with the UK.