The Rutherglen by-election - reading the runes
Labour is pushing hard and is all but certain to win
Labour is pretty much certain to win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election in two weeks time - probably by a big margin. They only need a 5% swing to take the seat which they held as recently as 2017. The betting is odds on - for every 12 pounds you bet on a Labour victory, the bookies will give you one back.
Like an enthusiastic dancer doing a Strip the Willow, Rutherglen went to the SNP in 2015, swung back to Labour, and then back to the SNP when Margaret Ferrier took it in 2019. (The party will be fervently wishing that she had fallen on her sword when she broke Covid restrictions by travelling home to Glasgow after testing positive. She didn’t - instead she held on until the bitter end and was eventually forced out by a recall petition.)
Labour has lavished resources on the contest. There have been many trips by the Shadow Cabinet. The Daily Record this week published an email from Labour HQ offering to pay travel and hotel bills for staffers. It read: "This is a crucial by-election that can show Labour is once again challenging in Scotland and we need as many volunteers as possible. The party will cover all travel to Rutherglen, accommodation, and travel either back to London or on to Liverpool for Labour Party Conference.”
The SNP is preparing to answer “muscular Unionism” with muscular Indy
The SNP has also been canvassing, of course. Its platform for a Westminster election is subtly changing. It used to argue on the doorsteps that the SNP would be a strong voice for Scotland at the heart of the UK government. Now, under Humza Yousaf, the offer is that the SNP will use a majority of Scottish seats in the next election as a mandate to begin negotiations for Scottish independence. He has put forward a detailed motion to the SNP conference, backed by the Westminster leader Stephen Flynn. Planned next steps include the publication of a Withdrawal from Westminster document.
The SNP seems to be preparing to match “muscular Unionism” with muscular Independence. That will please many in the wider indy movement. There is no question that grassroots support for independence is very strong. There was a march earlier this month which, whether it had 25,000 or 10,000 on it, was big by Scottish standards. That is the equivalent of 10 times as many in London. Walking through George Square in Glasgow yesterday on my way to Queen Street station, I happened across a small but lively pro-indy demo by one of the breakaway groups of this fissiparous movement, I don’t know which one. A band on stage, who announced themselves as “Reely Jiggered”, were playing a wild tune punctuated occasionally by the word ‘Yes’. The crowd, festooned in saltires, was small but enthusiastic (photo above). Relighting the fire under the Yes movement army of activists is regarded as crucial to renewed success for the SNP.
But it remains to be seen how the change of position will go down with the soft centre. And the SNP is also still under the shadow of the interminable Operation Branch Form investigation into its finances - that certainly won’t help when it comes to rebuilding its coffers for the coming general election campaign.
By-election momentum will help Labour with fund-raising
Labour will see a win in Rutherglen as an important step on the way to forming the next UK Government. They argue on the doorsteps that they need Scottish seats to get the Tories out. That is disputable - Scotland has only 59 seats (down from 72) and the country will have only 57 next general election. In contrast, there are more than 100 seats in the north of England - far more important. That explains why the Labour Party has tailored its messaging on Brexit to what they call the ‘red wall’ in that area, which delivered that huge landslide to Boris Johnson in 2019.
But a win in Rutherglen will give the party a sense that their modest message “Vote for Labour - the least worst option” - is getting through. The idea that the party under Starmer is gaining momentum will help with general election fundraising. ‘If power looks close, that’s when the money rolls in,’ a Labour “old-timer” told the Spectator’s Katy Balls, quoted in a piece entitled: “How Labour won back Britain’s millionaires”.
The start of the beginning of the general election campaign
Some pundits predict that the next general election could be called around May 2024, rather than next autumn. There is an argument that going to the country in the spring has the best chance of minimising predicted Conservative losses. It would convey confidence - hanging on to the last possible moment does the opposite.
The argument for hanging on to the autumn would be that anything could happen by then - but that could be bad as well as good. The UK is heading for Brexit 2.0 when the trade restrictions between the UK and the EU will ratchet up a notch with a consequent suppressing effect on the UK economy. Northern Ireland too will find itself in an increasing bind, with two friction-filled borders instead of the promised none.
The bookies calculate that autumn 2024 is still a more likely prospect for the next UK election - but either way, the Rutherglen by-election marks the start of the beginning.