The UK's exports to the EU are now half the value of its imports
Eurostat numbers released this week show the UK and Ireland both suffering a fall in exports to the EU
Just a short one tonight - I want to share that the European Union statistics, released on August 13 show that the UK’s exports to the Union fell by almost a fifth in the six months from Brexit in January, and are now about half the value of imports from the EU. This did not get much - or any - coverage in the UK media.
According to the Eurostat figures, Ireland’s exports to the rest of the EU also appear to be affected by Brexit. It is the only EU country whose intra-union exports have fallen - by 5%. According to the table, Irealnd’s exports outwith the EU - including to the UK - are the same as last year.
The UK is the only one of the EU’s top ten trade partners which has experienced a fall in exports. The Eurostat figures appear to show a different picture from the Office of National Statistics. The Express’ headline on Saturday read: “Project fear dismantled! UK-EU monthly exports again above pre-Brexit 2020 levels”. Reuters reported that this difference is down to a different methodology - the EU is now recording other third country items that pass through the UK en route to EU countries as being from their country of origin instead of from the UK.
Here is a screenshot from the report, showing the top ten EU trading partners. According to this, the UK’s exports are almost double imports - it bought 135.5 billion Euros worth of goods and services from the EU, and sold 65.9 billion Euros worth to EU countries. Last year, that was 128.4 billion Euros imports to the UK, against 80.6 billion Euros worth of goods and services which the UK exported to the EU. I guess that means that if the pound loses any ground against the Euro, imports would become more expensive - and that wouldn’t be offset by income from exports.
The intra-EU table also appears to show that Ireland also has suffered a slight fall in exports to other EU countries which has not been offset by extra-EU exports - but imports are up. I have to confess, I don’t understand why the balance of payments figure appears to be lower for the first half of 2021 for Ireland. Do you? Answers in the comments please! The actual graphs are here.
I didn't mention it in the piece but the Chinese Digital TV Network Bulletin covered this story - and it highlighted the fact that the UK Gov statistics tell a different story from the EU. I guess Chinese readers will know what to make of that.
Ireland’s positive balance of payments (exports minus imports) has reduced since the first half of 2020 mainly because its imports increased in 2021.