Union with England has never seemed less attractive

The post-Brexit offer to Scotland seems to be "Westminster is the boss of you"

Shipwreck in the mist, photo Rob Bruce

My Granny Kemp would correct anyone who referred to the ‘Act of Union’, interjecting: “It’s the Treaty of Union.” Scotland signed up voluntarily, not to be part of England, but of a United Kingdom.

There was opposition back then in 1707 of course - but the Union was supported by a powerful swathe of middle Scotland, because of the opportunity it gave them and their children to be part of the growing British Empire. Later, Scots embraced the opportunities presented by membership of the European Union. 

Now support for independence is much higher than it has ever been. When Ipsos Mori started to monitor it in 1979 it was 14%. It was 45% in 2014 at the time of the referendum and it is about 50% now, according to Ipsos.

There are many reasons for supporting independence but one of the reasons it is higher now than a decade ago is Brexit.

Personally, I am surprised by the people I meet of solid middle-Scotland backgrounds who say they are increasingly. ambivalent about the Union, and more open to the idea of Scottish independence than they have ever been. 

Scots bought into the opportunities of Empire - Malawi

Ambitious Scots got stuck into the work of building the British Empire after 1707. Reading histories of the time, it seems as if there was hardly a native revolt or a slave rebellion that wasn’t crushed by my hard-working compatriots. 

We like to remember the warm welcome that David Livingstone received in Malawi. We speak less about William Jervis Livingstone, who was beheaded in front of his family by workers angry about his cruel treatment of them. John Chelembwe who led that uprising is still remembered on the Malawian 500-kwacha note for his service to the nation. Just saying - because despite the work of historians like Michael Fry and Tom Devine, who have both written readable books on Scotland’s role in the British Empire, Scotland has work to do in terms of acknowledging its role. (1)

Access to education put poor Scots in a strong position

Many Scots did good work as civil servants, nurses, doctors, teachers and aid workers, across that pink splotch on schoolroom maps. The National Library of Scotland is full of their spoor - concise, well-written reports from far-flung posts in Asia and Africa, that stand as a testament to the excellence of a Scottish education. 

John Knox and his Reformation buddies get a bad press - much of it well deserved - but they put a huge emphasis on education. Scotland was a relatively poor country with five early Universities to England’s two. In the 17th century, it produced about ten times as many doctors as England. University was, and remained, relatively accessible for Scots -  the Granny I mentioned in the intro, Meta Strachan, was the sixth child of a fisherman from an Aberdeenshire fishing village. They all went to Aberdeen University - the parents supported the oldest. After graduation, each supported the next sibling, all the way down to Meta, who became an English teacher. 

This access to qualifications meant that there were many educated Scots from poor or modest backgrounds who were in a strong position to seek their fortunes abroad. Some succeeded and returned to litter the homeland with those ersatz Baronial piles that we struggle to find uses for today. 

The Empire collapsed - but the EU offered fresh fields of endeavour

The sun set fast on the British Empire after Suez in 1956. But it was soon replaced by the chance to get involved in the nascent European Economic Community, later the EU. Some Scots became involved in its institutions. Many more went to live, work and study in Europe - this was far easier in the run-up to the UK finally joining as a full member in 1973 than it is now.  

These included some of my own friends and family. The late Brian McCluskey, my uncle David Kemp’s lifelong friend was one. He taught himself Dutch while working for Shell and later became director general of the EU translation service. His brother Dominic qualified as a lawyer in Scotland and then France and was called upon to assist the British Embassy the night Princess Diana died. My own great-aunt and uncle, Jane and Douglas Alcock retired to Rome, where Douglas was spotted at a party and became an extra, playing butlers and other walk-on parts in Italian films - he died on the set of “Sacco and Vanzetti”, a movie about Italian anarchists. 

Moving to Europe has become much more difficult after Brexit. One young associate was studying in Spain last year and had to miss coming home for Christmas - my mum’s last - because he was waiting for a visa and was under threat of being “banished” if he came back and tried to return without it. Another is trying to get a footing in the EU at the moment and suffering visa anxiety. He often urges me to rack my brains for potential routes: “Are you sure we don’t have any Irish people in the family?”

What is the offer now?

The UK economy has a slow puncture. Unionists like to trot out cherry-picked statistics about inflation in Germany or unemployment in Poland but we know what they are doing. The evidence is very clear on what Brexit is doing to the economy. Scotland is being hit extra hard for various reasons, such as the need for a seasonal workforce. We miss the young people from Athens to Zagreb who used to come each summer to work in hotels and restaurants across the Highlands. Skilled visa and spousal visas have income requirements that are way out of line with Scotland’s average salaries.

Moreover, Brexit has seriously limited opportunities for young Scots. The UK has a visa deal for under 30s with Australia and New Zealand - so I know a fair number of young folk who are going there. When the EU proposed a similar deal opening its 27 member countries to our young people - the British Labour Party would not even entertain it.

The UK government has passed the shameful and embarrassing Rwanda Act which mandates British courts to say that Rwanda is safe for asylum seekers, whatever the evidence. This and another new law that prevents refugees claiming asylum after arrival, are sending migrants through the British Isles’ “Common Travel Zone” to Ireland. 

Now London seems delighted to be in a row with Dublin, claiming this shows its policy is working. It is as if the UK government does not fully recognise that Ireland is a sovereign state backed by the EU. There are people in the EU who are experts at dealing with lawbreaking third countries who mess* with its members. They will impose sanctions  - and it won’t be at the Irish border. 

The UK/ England is becoming a jingoistic country with few friends and allies, stewing in its own sense of diminished greatness. I interviewed an eminent Scottish lawyer last week who compared England to Hungary. Hungary once had an Empire - they lost it a century ago and now all they have is the belief that they are much more important than anyone realises. Hungary gives an insight into how England might be, he said, if on top of losing its Empire abroad it were to lose its home Empire. 

Setbacks for the independence movement

The SNP has had its travails, and voters have other pressing concerns, such as the cost of living crisis and the climate emergency. It is probably inevitable now that the SNP will lose many Westminster seats at the General Election to Labour. Despite a general lack of enthusiasm for Labour, getting rid of the Conservative government feels like the best hope for immediate improvement, even if it is likely to be marginal and temporary

The independence movement has also been stymied in terms of a potential route to exit by a Supreme Court ruling which claimed Scotland doesn’t have the power to call a referendum on independence - because the Westminster Parliament is “sovereign”, which apparently means simply that it is the boss of us.

But the underlying issue is that Union with England has never seemed less attractive to middle Scotland. If support for independence continues to rise and reaches a consistent majority, will it be possible to force Scotland to remain in the UK indefinitely? Is “Westminster is the boss of you” really going to cut it? As my Granny Kemp liked to remind us, Scotland was an independent country for centuries before signing the Treaty of Union. 

Read more about Meta Strachan and Dougie Alcock in “The Sentimental Tourist: Time Travels in Scotland and England” ebook by Arnold Kemp here

(1)The Scottish Government is now involved in one of the world’s first loss and damage programmes for climate change, giving money directly to Malawian families who survived the world’s longest cyclone - but there is a lot more to do of course.

*Edited to remove an offensive word after a reader’s complaint